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  • North American Outlook

    September 07, 2022 | 15:12

    Straddling Recession

    profile photo of Sal Guatieri

    Sal Guatieri

    Senior Economist and Director
    Economics

    Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with over two decades experience as a ma... (Read more)

    profile photo of Sal Guatieri

    Sal Guatieri

    Senior Economist and Director
    Economics

    Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with over two decades experience as a ma... (Read more)

    More
    Key Summary

    The U.S. economy contracted in the first half of the year and, like Canada, should see little to no growth in the year ahead, though both countries may avoid a painful recession if inflation subsides as expected.


    Lower commodity prices, easing supply disruptions, and cooler demand suggest inflation may be peaking, though the climb down the mountain will likely be slow.


    Central banks are committed to raising policy rates to at least moderately restrictive levels by year-end, and are unlikely to reverse gears to support the economy until 2024.

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