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  • North American Outlook

    August 18, 2020 | 11:57

    Resurgence Risks Recovery

    Economist
    profile photo of Sal Guatieri

    Sal Guatieri

    Director and Senior Economist
    Economics

    Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with over two decades experience as a ma... (Read more)

    profile photo of Sal Guatieri

    Sal Guatieri

    Director and Senior Economist
    Economics

    Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with over two decades experience as a ma... (Read more)

    More
    Key Summary

    The resurgence of the coronavirus in the U.S. is starting to impede the recovery, implying a downside risk to the outlook should it persist.


    For now, buoyed by positive data in the early phase of the recovery, we continue to forecast an economic contraction in the range of 5% to 6% this year for the U.S. and Canada, but a sizeable rebound in 2021.


    Substantial fiscal policy support, rock-bottom interest rates, and improved financial conditions should aid the recovery, though its fate ultimately hinges on the course of the pandemic.


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