Bullard: The policy rate needs to rise to at least between 5.00% and 5.25% to be “sufficiently restrictive”. He also noted that inflation “could easily go the other way in the next report,” and that the Fed has been “burned” for two years already.
Kashkari: “I need to be convinced that inflation has at least stopped climbing, that we're not falling further behind the curve, before I would advocate stopping the progression of future rate hikes…we’re not there yet”.
Collins: "We're now in a phase where deliberate increments - all of the possible increments - should be on the table as we decide what is sufficiently tight...75 is still is on the table; I think it's important to say that as well".
Economic data were mixed this week, with a soft underlying tone overall. Here’s a quick rundown:
Retail sales: A solid 1.3% gain in October came in ahead of expectations. From a year ago, sales were up a hefty 8.3%, but keep in mind that goods inflation over that period clocked in at 8.6%, so real purchasing power has ground to a halt at the retail level.
Industrial production: Softer than expected, down 0.1% in October, though declines in mining and utilities weighed on the headline. Capacity utilization is holding steady around the 80% level, both broadly and in the manufacturing sector.
Housing data: Pretty much bad across the board as the market is fully in correction mode now. Existing home sales fell 5.9% in October, or 28.4% from a year ago.