Special Report

June 01, 2026 | 05:45

World Cup ’26: Will Home Team Economies Win?

Economist

Senior Economist and Vice President
Economics

Erik conducts research on financial product market trends, emerging risks and macroeconomic trends for the Bank.... (Read more)

Shelly Kaushik

Senior Economist and Vice President
Economics

Shelly joined BMO Economics in 2020 and conducts research on the Canadian and regional economies. She also provi... (Read more)

Sal Guatieri

Senior Economist and Director
Economics

Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with over two decades experience as a ma... (Read more)

Erik Johnson

Senior Economist and Vice President
Economics

Erik conducts research on financial product market trends, emerging risks and macroeconomic trends for the Bank.... (Read more)

Shelly Kaushik

Senior Economist and Vice President
Economics

Shelly joined BMO Economics in 2020 and conducts research on the Canadian and regional economies. She also provi... (Read more)

Sal Guatieri

Senior Economist and Director
Economics

Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with over two decades experience as a ma... (Read more)

Game Highlights

The 2026 World Cup will deliver a modest lift to GDP across North America this summer amid tourism inflows and hospitality-related spending.
The U.S. will garner the bulk of tourism spending but Canada and Mexico also stand to benefit.

Before The Kickoff

With North America hosting the largest-ever FIFA World Cup football (or soccer) tournament this summer, all three countries will naturally be rooting for the home team. But they are also hoping to capitalize on increased tourism, while containing costs related to security and infrastructure. Will their economies be triumphant?

The 2026 edition of the tournament runs from June 11 to July 19, almost six weeks. It is the first (of the 22 going back to 1930) to be hosted by three nations, with games played in 16 cities—eleven in the U.S., three in Mexico, and two in Canada. Stadium sizes range from 94,000 seats in Dallas to 45,000 in Toronto, with total attendance potentially exceeding 7 million fans.

A total of 48 teams will compete, the most ever and 16 more than when Argentina won in Qatar in 2022. The greatly expanded format involves 104 games, an increase of over 60% from the 64 matches played four years ago. This includes a Group Stage, where each team plays three others within its bracket to determine the top 32 squads that will advance to the Knockout Stage. From there, four successive wins are needed to reach the final.

First Half: Tourism Scores

With most of the host cities located in the U.S., it will attract the majority of tourism spending. Even so, the current context matters: travel to the U.S. has been lagging amid tighter border and immigration controls (Chart 1), and international tourists may be marginally more inclined to travel to Canada or Mexico instead. Ultimately, however, match schedules will determine where fans go—and New Jersey and Miami are hosting the final and bronze-medal matches, respectively. Early data from SiteMinder [1] suggested accommodation bookings and room rates picked up after the World Cup draw (in early December) in and around host cities, including those in the U.S., for both hotel and short-term stays. U.S. bookings have jumped particularly around the final match in New Jersey and the U.S. opening match in Los Angeles. Still, bookings for these marquee dates were eclipsed by the England-Croatia match in Dallas, highlighting international tourism and stadium capacity as primary drivers. More recent data from the American Hotel and Lodging Association [2] (AHLA) indicate bookings have slowed markedly and are falling short of expectations. The most commonly cited obstacles were visa and immigration-related concerns, while the oil price shock adds another cost-related headwind for would-be travellers.

Spending at bars and restaurants is expected to rise materially. Moneris [3] found that it jumped more than 10% in Canada alone during the 2022 World Cup. However, the gain will be temporary, and only spending by international travellers can be considered a net benefit, since residents will be largely diverting money that would otherwise have been spent on other activities or at other times. Among goods, the spending bump will be concentrated in clothing and accessories, sporting goods, and food and beverages. One of the more recent comparables, the Blue Jays’ 2025 World Series run, left its mark on Canadian real GDP in October via increases in accommodation and food services (1.0%) and information and cultural industries (0.8%). However, overall retail trade actually declined 0.6% in the month.

Not all cities will benefit equally from tourism (Table 1). Assuming sellout attendance, Dallas will garner about 12% of total fan spending by virtue of its larger-capacity stadium and the most number of scheduled games (9). At the other end, Guadalajara will attract less than 3% of spending. With two-thirds of the host cities located in the U.S., and stadium capacities generally on the larger side, the U.S. will draw four-fifths of all fan spending, while Mexico will see just over a tenth and Canada slightly less than a tenth.

Additionally, smaller economic benefits occurred well before the games will begin via construction spending on stadium upgrades. Depending on the host city, these costs were borne through a combination of public and private funding.

Second Half: Growth Goals

Academic studies generally suggest that:

The economic benefits of mega-events, such as the World Cup, are modest and short-lived [4].
The public sector bears most of the costs while the private sector reaps most of the benefits [5].
Substitution and crowding-out effects significantly reduce the net gains in spending [6].

To estimate the potential lift to GDP across Canada and the U.S. from the 2026 World Cup, we consider two channels of spending:

Tourism: driven by additional international visitors, and
Resident: reflecting increased spending on urban transit, restaurants and bars, and accommodations in host cities by domestic residents.

Tourism-related gains primarily flow through traveller accommodations, air transportation, and food services, which together account for about 54% of tourism value added. That industry also represents a larger share of the U.S. economy (about 3%) than of Canada’s (under 2%), implying that the U.S. stands to benefit more from the tourism channel.

Although the U.S. will host more matches, Canada’s games are concentrated in two cities (Toronto and Vancouver) that have a much higher share of national GDP exposure than the average U.S. match. So, the resident channel is relatively more potent in Canada. When cities are weighted by their share of total domestic matches, the average host-city share of Canada's GDP is 13.1%, compared with 3.4% in the United States.

Drawing on evidence from past mega-events, we assume an uplift in tourism and resident spending of 10–25% during the near six-week World Cup window. But, as we highlighted, the net impact on spending should be adjusted for substitution and crowding out effects, which we assume are in the 30–50% range.

Under these assumptions, we estimate that the U.S. could see quarterly GDP gains ranging between US$22-$76 billion from the tourism channel and $1-$5 billion from the resident channel. For Canada, the estimated gains are C$1-$5 billion and $0.5-$1.5 billion, respectively. This translates into a lift of 0.1-0.3 ppts to quarterly annualized GDP growth in the U.S. and around 0.1 ppts in Canada, roughly split between the second and third quarters of the year. The growth impacts on Ontario and British Columbia could be at least two to three times larger. Employment will also see a modest lift.

However, benefits and costs may not necessarily align. Toronto and Vancouver have faced some of the largest cost overruns among all 2026 host cities, driven by inflation, FIFA-mandated stadium upgrades, temporary seating expansions, and sharply higher security requirements. The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer pegs the public-sector cost of hosting the tournament in the two cities (including security) at just over C$1 billion, with federal funding covering just under half. Local host committees are publicly funded municipal extensions, limiting their ability to scale back commitments as costs rise. By contrast, many U.S. host cities have scaled back commitments and rely more on private financing, reducing the fiscal burden on local governments [7]. Privately funded non-profit committees can trim obligations, adjust fan festival plans, or mobilize corporate sponsorships when budgets come under pressure. Mexico, meanwhile, has chosen to fold rising World Cup costs into a broader national infrastructure program, diffusing the fiscal impact across a long-horizon tourism strategy.

As a result, even though the aggregate GDP benefits from hosting the games appear large enough to outweigh upfront costs at the national level, the distribution of those benefits is far from even. Most of the economic gains flow to the private sector, while the public sector in Toronto and Vancouver will absorb a disproportionate share of the financial risk. This misalignment between who pays and who benefits lies at the core of the cost/reward challenge for Canadian host cities. Still, improvements to infrastructure will imply long-run benefits to the economy.

Postgame Wrap

The 2026 World Cup will provide a modest lift to economic growth this summer that is widely dispersed among businesses in the host cities. One consideration, however, is that the public costs—especially in Canada—are highly concentrated, leaving governments to absorb somewhat larger debts. The economic case for hosting is strongest as a short-term demand bump, not as a foundation for long-run growth. Still, that shouldn't detract from the enjoyment of hosting the marquee event of the world's most widely watched sport.

(With files from Ethan Mendes)

[1] https://www.hoteldive.com/news/fifa-world-cup-2026-booking-volume-adr-increase/808374/ [^]

[2] https://www.ahla.com/news/new-report-warns-world-cup-hotel-boom-may-fall-short-expectations [^]

[3] https://dataservices.moneris.com/en/resources/blog/consumer-spending-insights/consumer-spend-trend--2022-fifa-world-cup-finals-was-a-win-for-bars-in-canada [^]

Special Report

World Cup ’26: Will Home Team Economies Win?

Game Highlights

Before The Kickoff

First Half: Tourism Scores

Second Half: Growth Goals

Postgame Wrap

[1] https://www.hoteldive.com/news/fifa-world-cup-2026-booking-volume-adr-increase/808374/ [^]

[2] https://www.ahla.com/news/new-report-warns-world-cup-hotel-boom-may-fall-short-expectations [^]

[3] https://dataservices.moneris.com/en/resources/blog/consumer-spending-insights/consumer-spend-trend--2022-fifa-world-cup-finals-was-a-win-for-bars-in-canada [^]

[4] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/economics-hosting-olympic-games [^]

[5] https://www.iosrjournals.org/iosr-jef/papers/Vol15-Issue5/Ser-3/F1505034549.pdf [^]

[6] https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/publication/bringing-home-the-gold-a-review-of-the-economic-impact-of-hosting-mega-events/ [^]

[7] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-fifa-world-cup-costs-toronto-vancouver/ [^]