Regional Labour Market Report Card
October 07, 2022 | 10:28
Strength on the Prairie
Canadian employment fell 49,200 in 2022Q3 (June-to-September), with a clear downshift in hiring momentum through the summer. That said, this is still a very tight job market, with the unemployment rate finishing the quarter at 5.2%, just up from the lowest since the 1970s. Regionally, labour market tightness is evident from coast to coast, but Ontario is losing momentum quickest.
Six of ten provinces posted job gains in Q3, but Ontario was the clear laggard with 78k jobs lost. While employment is still up 1.8% y/y, the province is showing the clearest slowdown in the country. Broad-based declines across construction and various service industries have weighed.
Jobless rates are down everywhere from a year ago, with Saskatchewan now the lowest in Canada at 4.1%. B.C., Manitoba and Quebec are also in the 4% range. The divergence in jobless rates across the country is historically very low.
At a high level, Alberta continues to look very strong, with 4.3% y/y job growth and a 2.6 ppt decline in the jobless rate from a year ago. The province is also drawing in migrants from elsewhere, and is expected to perform relatively well over the coming year.
At the city level, Alberta's strength (along with Saskatchewan) is evident, as Saskatoon and Calgary now top our performance ranking (each has surged at least 20 spots in the past year). Edmonton now sits in the fourth spot.