EconoFACTS

April 10, 2026 | 09:03

Cdn. Jobs — On the March, Slowly

Economist

Douglas Porter , CFA

Chief Economist and Managing Director
Economics

Douglas Porter brings more than three decades of experience analyzing gl... (Read more)

Douglas Porter , CFA

Chief Economist and Managing Director
Economics

Douglas Porter brings more than three decades of experience analyzing gl... (Read more)

Canadian employment rose by a moderate 14,100 in March after a tough start to 2026. Given that employment had plunged by a combined 108,700 positions in the first two months of the year, no one is going to mistake this small back-up as a sign of strength, especially when full-time jobs actually nudged down a bit further last month. Still, even a small plus sign is a positive, as is the stable jobless rate, which held at 6.7% (actually a tick lower than a year ago). The labour force also edged up 15k after two big declines as the participation rate steadied, but the number of people in the workforce has only risen 0.4% in the past year, just a tad below job growth (at the second decimal place only). Overall, the report was bizarrely close to consensus, and gets a passing grade of 57.1 on our scoring system. That will barely move the needle for the Bank of Canada debate.

One wrinkle was that average hourly wages popped, unexpectedly, to a 4.7% y/y pace, the fastest in more than a year and well up from 3.9% the prior month. Wages can be a bouncy series, but that's a big bounce, and a move that bears watching. Meantime, total hours worked edged up 0.2% m/m after a deep dive in February. That still left them down at a 0.4% annual rate for all of Q1. With a half-decent productivity gain in the quarter, that could still work with our 1.5% estimate for first-quarter GDP growth.

By industry: There were no real stand-outs at the sectoral level, although the good news is that both construction and manufacturing eked out small advances, helping the goods sector rise 12.5k. Services were nearly flat, as declines in finance (-11k) and hospitality (-10k) offset gains in professional & technical services (+12k) and other services (+15k). Notably, the resource sector was strong at +10,300, with gains in six provinces in that group.

By region: Seven of the 10 provinces recorded overall job gains, led by a big 10,800 rise in Manitoba—the largest non-pandemic gain on record for that small province. (Construction was the leader there, but the increases were widespread.) Quebec was next with a gain of just under 10k, led by hotels & restaurants. On the flip side, B.C. sustained a heavy 19,200 drop, and is by far the weakest in the country over the past year (down 1.2% y/y), while its jobless rate jumped 0.6 ppts to hit the national average of 6.7%. Ontario also lost jobs, and is down slightly over the past year (-0.1%), while sporting the second highest jobless rate in the nation at 7.6%.

Bottom Line: For a refreshing change, the employment results were no big surprise in March, and the big-picture take-away is that job growth has been quite modest over the past year—but so, too, has been the growth in the available labour force, holding the unemployment rate steady. The only really new news here is that wages seemingly popped, which the Bank of Canada will keep on eye on, particularly as it is already on high alert for signs of any spillover from higher energy prices to broader inflation.

Table 1 - Canada — Employment

(change in thousands)

Source: BMO Economics, Haver Analytics