EconoFACTS

November 30, 2022 | 10:27

Still Over 10 mln Job Openings Out There!

Economist

Jennifer Lee

Senior Economist and Managing Director
Economics

(Read more)

Jennifer Lee

Senior Economist and Managing Director
Economics

(Read more)

"Bad is good; Good is bad." Repeat to oneself.

Indeed, not a great run of data this morning. Yes, the U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in Q3 (real GDP was revised higher to 2.9% a.r.), and though Q4 looks to be starting off on a firm note, it is not firm firm, if you get my drift. The goods trade deficit ballooned to a 4-month high of $99.0 bln in October, as a 2.6% drop in exports was paired with a 0.9% increase in imports. That's going to weigh on Q4. Pending home sales (contracts signed but not closed) fell 4.6% in the same month. At least inventories look to add to the bottom line, as total business inventories rose 0.4%.

But it all goes back to the job market, and with that, we turn to the latest JOLTS for October. The total number of job openings fell (both private sector and government) to 10.334 mln last month, which reversed some (not all) of September's unexpected increase. This is the sixth time in the past 10 months that openings declined but the level remains elevated. Consider this: There have been over 10 mln job openings for the past sixteen months, which outnumbers the number of unemployed Americans by a factor of almost 2. So normally, declining openings would be good news if it meant that the jobs were being filled. But the number of hires fell again, which means either 1) businesses continue to have problems finding the right person; or, 2) some openings are being taken off the table. But fewer workers are quitting.... the quits rate slipped to 2.6% from 2.7% in September.

Bottom Line: The labor market is cooling (what the Fed wants) but it is far from cold. So, please go back to the beginning of this email and repeat that phrase. Let's see if Chair Powell mentions this in his speech later today.