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  • North American Outlook

    April 07, 2022 | 13:35

    Out of the Pandemic and Into the Fire

    Economist
    profile photo of Sal Guatieri

    Sal Guatieri

    Senior Economist and Director
    Economics

    Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with over two decades experience as a ma... (Read more)

    profile photo of Sal Guatieri

    Sal Guatieri

    Senior Economist and Director
    Economics

    Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with over two decades experience as a ma... (Read more)

    More
    Key Summary

    The Russia-Ukraine war is the second major blow to the North American economy in the span of two years, and will both slow growth and lift inflation.


    Recession risks have risen. However, assuming the war doesn't escalate further and commodity prices settle down, the expansion is expected to continue with support from high household savings.


    Central banks are caught between a rock (higher inflation) and a hard place (weaker growth). Let's hope they can stick-handle through the current situation better than in the 1970s.


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