Canadian Housing Monitor

February 18, 2026 | 09:37

Canadian Housing Monitor: January 2026

Economist

Robert Kavcic

Senior Economist and Director
Economics

Robert has been with BMO Capital Markets since 2006. He plays a key role... (Read more)

Robert Kavcic

Senior Economist and Director
Economics

Robert has been with BMO Capital Markets since 2006. He plays a key role... (Read more)

Hunkered Down

Canada’s housing market started the year buried under snow—at least in Southern Ontario—and it was enough to drag down the headline numbers. With an already low-volume month hit by tough weather, there's not too much to take from the January results. Stepping back, however, the market continues its long and slow adjustment, a period characterized by soft volumes and flat/falling prices. And, some markets where the weather was perfectly fine (e.g., Vancouver) were also still under pressure. We'll have a better indication when the market thaws out in early spring, but expect any pent-up demand to be at least equally met by pent-up listings.

Existing home sales fell 5.8% in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, and were down 16.2% from year-ago levels. Major snowstorms clearly had an impact, with sharp declines registered across Southern Ontario, although the rest of the country wasn't exactly humming. New listings jumped 7.3% in the month, but were still down 6.2% from a year ago. That pulled down the sales-to-new listings ratio to 45.0%, reflecting still-balanced overall national conditions, but clearly on the soft side.

Many talk about pent-up demand given the lack of sales volume in 2025, but there's probably also a significant amount of pent-up supply in the form of listings that were sitting and ultimately pulled after not selling. We'll see how this balance plays out in the spring.

The national benchmark price slipped again to end the year, and was down 5.0% y/y in January. From the February 2022 high, that now leaves prices down 19% nationally.

Table 1 - Canada — Existing Home Sales

(% change)

Source: BMO Economics, Haver Analytics, CREA

Southern Ontario is still the weak spot, especially in the new condo space. New condo sales have all but dried up, investors are absent and the resale market is still struggling. Apartment prices (declines as deep as 18% y/y in London) are faring worse than single-family, but the latter are still getting pressured by an affordability adjustment. Vancouver and some other markets across B.C. remain soft with elevated inventories, and January numbers were particularly poor. Sales in Vancouver were down 29% from a year ago, leaving the market well in buyers' control. Calgary has rolled over as well and is no longer escaping the wider correction. Sales in the city are down 14% y/y and prices have slipped 3.3% from a year ago. Markets in Quebec saw a seasonally abnormal jump in new listings in January, which softened previously-tight market balances. Finally, price gains continue across most of Atlantic Canada, where markets lean in favor of sellers.

In a separate release (February 16th), Canadian housing starts pulled back to 238k annualized units in January, leaving the 12-month average at a still-strong 259k. Among the trends going on below the calm surface are two major ones: First, the collapse in new condo sales is weighing heavily on starts in that segment, particularly in Ontario where overall starts are now averaging a 66k pace over the latest 12 months, down from nearly 100k at the high in 2023. Second, headline start numbers remain propped up by the purpose-built rental segment, but that too will eventually cool given market signals (i.e., falling rents) on the ground today.

National Price Trends

Market Balance

Local Market Conditions

Recent Reports of Interest

Housing Outlook 2026: What You See is What You'll Get: As we continue to work through the secular downturn in Canadian housing, expect more of the same for sales and prices in 2026. This year figures to bring a weaker rental market, shy investors, and another step closer to restoring affordability.

Canada’s Population Estimates (2025Q4) — Reversal Underway: Canada’s population grew just 0.2% y/y in Q4 (marked as of October 1st, 2025), down sharply from highs above 3% seen just over a year ago.

One Big Belated Budget: The highly anticipated 2025 Canadian federal budget lands in the middle of a trade dispute, and at a time when the economy is struggling to grow.

The Mortgage Renewal Wave: Sink or Swim? The wave of Canadian mortgage renewals is set to crest in the year ahead, but households, the financial system and economy are well-equipped to handle it.

Supply, Meet Demand: Housing affordability will return to pre-pandemic norms through a combination of market dynamics, income growth, a modest reduction in borrowing costs and firm construction activity. Policymakers can help.

Canadian Commercial Real Estate Update: The trade war marks a sharp setback in what otherwise would have been a better year for Canadian commercial real estate.

Canadian Mortgages: Fix or Float? With borrowing costs more likely to fall than rise—and by a lot in a possible trade war—a floating rate mortgage could pay off.

What Canada’s Immigration Shift Will and Will Not Do: Ottawa’s dramatic about-turn on immigration will turn Canada’s 3%+ population growth to near-zero in coming years.

Pathways to Affordability for Canada’s Housing Market: You would need to go back to the era of double-digit mortgage rates in the early 1990s to see the last time buying a home in Canada was as expensive as it is today. Is there a route back to affordability and, if so, how long will it take?

Extraordinary Population Delusions and the Trouble with Crowds: The narratives around the population boom have, in our view, been off the mark. Here are five things worth challenging.

Real Estate Investment: The Good, the Bad and the Implications: Does real estate investment make sense at this stage of the cycle? And if not, what are some implications?